2022 French Presidential Election: A Left Wing Win Is Still Possible!
by Alexandre Perin, November 22, 2021
5 Terrible Years
It’s been 4 and a half years since Emmanuel Macron has been elected French president. Since the arrival of the liberal president, we have seen major tax cuts for the wealthiest with the suppression of the tax on wealth (ISF), the implementation of a flat tax on capital and the lowering of the housing assistance benefits. The 340,000 richest households have seen their revenue rise by an average of 11,000 dollars in the first year.
These economic policies of the Macron era created the two longest protests the 5th French republic has seen with the yellow jackets that took the streets and especially roundabouts for more than a year. While the reform on pensions brought protesters in tens of thousands during three months in the streets. These both were repressed extremely violently with 32 gutted eyes and 5 hands torn off due to the use of flash balls and dispersion grenades.
The poverty numbers are also alarming with 9.1 million people under the poverty line in 2019 and estimated to be between 10 and 11 million people in 2021. During the pandemic the big businesses helped the most with tax breaks and financial aid laid off 62,500 employees in the past year.
Current French president, Emmanuel Macron
Image Source: Financial Times
The inefficiency of this government to act during the COVID-19 pandemic and their ludicrous decisions could be an article all on itself. However, an election is coming up in less than six months that could change all of this for the French people but also give hope to many around the world.
The Far Right Is at the Gate
While the media and all commentators predicted for 5 years a new run-off between the right-wing Macron and the far right Marine Le Pen, things are not so sure now.
A new candidate to the right of Marine Le Pen has appeared and is accusing the far-right leader of being too nice with immigrants and not radical enough to his liking. Eric Zemmour has not yet officially announced to run but everyone knows he will be, already polling neck to neck with Marine Le Pen. This means around 30 to 35% of the voters according to polls will vote for one of these far-right candidates. We also have to consider that the conservatives (LR) will also be choosing a candidate in December to run.
This could appear very bleak as around 75% of the people would not even vote for a centre left ballot. Indeed, the left is running with a base of around 25%. The socialist candidate (centre left) at around 5%, the green at around 9%, the communist at around 2% and Jean Luc Melenchon (left) at around 10% as of now.
I said it was bleak from an outside perspective; it could even seem hopeless. With the media putting forward constantly far right themes and ideas such as immigration, anti-feminists’ rhetoric’s and general hatred against many parts of the population.
The Left Is Approved by a Majority
Jean Melenchon in a rally
Image Source: Jacobinmag.com
However, six months is a long time in politics. Melenchon and the France Insoumise went from 10 to 20% in that same timeframe last time. Missing the second round by just 600,000 votes. Right now, the polls estimate a participation of around 50% of the population, most people have not made their mind yet. Students, low-income households that have for good reasons other preoccupations have not started to engage with the political debate.
Furthermore, victory is possible if the turnout is high because the main themes of the left are more than welcomed by the general population. 80% are in favour of raising the minimum wage, 70% plead for reducing the working hours, 57% are for the controlled legalisation of cannabis. The main propositions are accepted. It is now time to work to turn this acceptance into a majority vote.
Maybe the only strength of the left as of now is its strong network of activists around the country and the world. It is now time to knock on doors, to put signs up and give out flyers. To convince the most people possible to vote and to vote left.
No Time for a Fake Political Alliance
Image Source: Reuters
Many commentators on the left are begging for an alliance between the different parties. Some call it the “dumbest left in the world”. But is it necessary and is that truly a strategy that has a chance to pay off? In comparison to the United States, it would be like asking Bernie Sanders and Andrew Yang to shake hands and say to everyone they should vote for a coalition party they just made 6 months prior to the elections. No one would understand and the Sanders and Yang supporters would never accept such a compromising compromise. The turnout rate would plunge amongst leftists’ voters that believed in true change and wanted to work towards this change with ideas they believed in. It is a bad strategy making political deals that no one would understand just to appear united, this will just turn away voters even more from politics.
However, the alliance between the socialists or the greens and France insoumise is impossible due to a completely different point of view on many issues. It is still possible that we will see an alliance of the communists and France insoumise as they ran the two last elections together with 11% in 2012 and 19 % in 2017. A 2022 common ballot might just be enough to get to the second round and win the presidency in April.
Mélenchon Is the Only Possible Winner for the Left
The socialist candidate and mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo is running with almost zero chance of winning. Her closest collaborators even told the press that she is only running to get her name out for the next elections. She is surrounded by many centre left mayors of big French cities and old politicians of the socialist’s party. She has barely any reach to the youth. Furthermore, there is no trust in the population towards the socialist party since Francois Hollande (president from 2012-2017) attacked workers rights during his supposedly “left” term.
A picture of activists supporting Melenchon
Image Source: La France Insoumise
The Greens chose the centre left Yannick Jadot, a long-time member of the European parliament. He has been tied with the financial sectors and European liberals. His recent left turn is not fooling anyone, French people know too well how the centre left candidates break their promises once in power.
The communist for their part chose Fabien Roussel, member of the French parliament who supported Mélenchon in the last two elections. He is in many ways like the France insoumise and has very little disagreements. He is running for the same reasons as the Greens and socialists, not to win but to show they still exist in the political landscape.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the other hand is here to win, he has the experience of running a very good campaign where both in debates and meetings he convinced people. Furthermore, today compared to the last elections he is surrounded by 23 parliament members and tens of locally elected officials that will campaign with and for him. He is the only one that has a full political plan. He has been a member of parliament in the last 5 years and is considered Macron’s first opponent.
With this large panel of candidates many have not yet chosen for whom they will vote. One thing is sure, the left only has a slim chance to be in the second round and this chance is in the person of Mélenchon as of now. It would be the first time since the beginning of the 5th French republic that no left-wing party has managed to grab a spot in the second round of the most important election twice in a row.